This paper was presented in the first international conference on Energy and environment held from 19-22 September 2019 in Nanjing. This forum brought together scientists and engineers interested in innovation and professional development from various fields relevant to energy and environment. More than 400 participants from over 20 countries were invited to the conference. Latest studies from various aspects of energy and environment including 100 peer-reviewed technical papers were presented as oral presentations and more than 250 as poster presentations.
Abstract:
The Gambia has experienced water shortage and extensive drop of the groundwater levels for many years, especially in densely populated Brikama city, yet the relationship between the groundwater level and factors explaining its drop have not been studied. In this study we examined the effect of the variation of climate variables and the attenuation of groundwater levels. Climate data of Yundum rainfall station and groundwater level data of 10 observation wells in the West Coast Region were used for the study. MLR was used to establish the relationship between climate variables and the groundwater level. Trend analysis was conducted to study the pattern of changes in climate variables. Also, ARIMA model was used to forecast the groundwater levels. The findings of the study show that the groundwater level in the study area was affected by climate variables, and rainfall is the main contributor to the water table fluctuation. The relationship between climate variables and the groundwater level is highly significant with P-Value of 1.68e-06 (P<0.001) and a multiple R2 of 48% representing the variation explained by climate variables. The groundwater level of the study site shows a decreasing trend for the projected three years (from 2019 to 2021). This study shows that climate change is a concern in Brikama, and therefore require further research. Moreover, the modelling results indicated that MLR and ARIMA models developed in this study are able to predict groundwater levels with reasonable accuracy.
Keywords: Climate change; Groundwater level; Water shortage; MLR model; ARIMA model; Brikama |