| 内容提要: |
China has experienced rapid development regarding economy and urbanization in the last 35 years, along with which energy consumption in building sector increased dramatically. To deal with the increasing energy shortage and CO2 emission, an initiative that aims to improve building energy efficiency, including newly built residential buildings sector, has been launched by the Chinese central government in 2014. This paper, as part of the research project, aims to develop the national target for newly built buildings energy efficiency improvement (2016-2030), bridging the policy gaps between China and most developed countries. 32 institutions and 22 core experts are selected and investigated. The SMART criteria, selection principles of forecasting, and Delphi method were utilized to suit Chinese situation. Results show that the energy efficiency should be promoted by 20% every five years until 2030. Contributing to the nature-born deficiencies on the speed of convergence, this paper developed an alternative approach, including minor revisions of the Delphi Method, that can be referred to by those countries who want to develop their roadmap of targets.
我国高速的社会经济发展、高速的城镇化进程和人民生活水平的提升使得居住建筑能耗增长迅速。据统计，居住建筑能耗占我国建筑总终端用能40%。研究结果及实践表明，通过提升新建居住建筑的能效水平能够有效降低建筑能耗的增长速度。国内外许多学者均针对本国及中国的建筑能效提升发展趋势进行了预测并提出了相应的技术解决方案及政策建议。然而，这些研究多基于统计数据或社会学、数学或物理模型进行分析。建筑节能行业从业人员的意见则很少被调研、统计、分析。为此，课题组围绕未来中国新建居住建筑能效梯度的设定进行了全国性的调研，并进行了详细的数据分析。调研采用德尔菲法进行，邀请了包括设计院、建筑科学研究机构、大学、政府机关等在内的29家单位及包括建筑学专业、暖通专业在内专家进行大规模调研。调研结束后，通过论证会的方式，从技术角度对调研结果进行分析。基于德尔菲法的统计表明，专家形成共识，到2030年前，中国建筑节能应按照每五年提升30%的速度进行。基于统计数据的结果则表明，每五年能效提升20%则是相对保守且容易实现的目标。另外，不同气候区、不同专业、不同类型的机构和专家对建筑能效提升的目标预测结果有明显差异。基于技术可行性的论证则表明，中国应逐渐转向基于能耗强度的建筑节能评价体系，并于2030年实现新建建筑达到“被动式建筑”的目标，其中单位面积建筑能耗强度不高于15kWh/m2a |